Scott L. Goodrick

Project Leader/Supervisory Research Meteorologist
Atmospheric Science Team
Center for Forest Disturbance Science
USDA Forest Service
sgoodrick@fs.fed.us
SRS Staff Directory Profile

SRS Publications List

Education

Ph.D. Atmospheric Science 1997 University of Alabama in Huntsville
M.S. Atmospheric Science 1995 University of Alabama in Huntsville
B.S. Marine Biology 1991 Auburn University

Research

Wind-related forest disturbance

To better understand hurricane related disturbance events and develop adaptive management strategies capable of minimizing wind damage. The research approach focuses on developing a model describing potential wind damage based on stand characteristics such as species composition, age and stand density; however developing this relationship also involves increasing our understanding of the physics involved in a windthrow event at the tree level. The goal of the research is to develop tools so managers can evaluate planting densities and the timing of thinnings for various species which will provide managers with guidance on how to minimize their risk to wind related losses.

Air quality and smoke management

Collaborating with scientists at the Pacific Northwest and Northern Research Stations, as well as cooperators at Georgia Institute of Technology, University of Georgia and George Mason University to develop tools for assessing air quality impacts of smoke from wildland fires. Tool development relies upon computer models that accurately describe the dynamics of smoke plumes from wildland fires. The majority of air quality models are designed to assess the air quality impacts of industrial point source emissions and are not well suited for depicting the complex temporal/spatial evolution of a fire as an emission source. This groups research has revealed the limitations of treating fires as point source emission sources and is working towards a more universal description of fire emission sources smoke dispersion. Science delivery for this research is handled by the Southern High Resolution Modeling Consortium (SHRMC), a partnership with the University of Georgia to support fire weather and smoke management tools for the Southeast. SHRMC is one of five regional Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS) created by the U.S. Forest Service through the National Fire Plan.

Fire-climate relationships

To improve understanding of the linkages between fire season severity and climate patterns through an analysis of the impact of various atmospheric teleconnection patterns on fire weather conditions in the southeastern United States. Teleconnection patterns represent various modes of variability in the atmosphere. Each pattern has distinctive spatial and temporal characteristics. Through superposition of these modes the large scale circulation pattern of the atmosphere can be reconstructed. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is one of the most dominant teleconnection patterns. Other leading modes of variability include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NP), the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The scientist examines these modes and their impact on weather patterns across the southeastern United States and relates these impacts to potential changes in fire season severity. The goal of this research is to provide improved forecasts of fire season severity with a lead time sufficient to aid fire managers in assessing resource needs.

Similar climate work in collaboration with another research meteorologist and research ecologist examines climate change impacts on seasonal wildfire potential at the global, national, and regional scales. This work involves examining output from global and regional climate models and converting this output to a measure of fire potential.

Publications

  • McNider, R.T. and S.L. Goodrick, 1994: Modeling of the coupled ocean/katabatic wind system of the Antarctic. Antarctic Journal, XXIX(5): 291-292
  • Goodrick, S., D. England and R. McNider, 1995: Modeling of the coupled katabatic/ ocean and ice systems of the Antarctic. Proceedings of the Fourth Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Dallas, TX. January 1995. pp. 174-179.
  • Goodrick, S.L., R.T. McNider and W.W. Schroeder, 1998: On the interaction of the katabatic wind-land-sea wind system of the Antarctic with the high latitude Southern Ocean. In S. Jacobs and R. Weiss (Eds.), Ocean, Ice and Atmosphere: Interactions at the Antarctic Continental Margin, American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C. pp 51-66.
  • Goodrick, S. L., M. A. Bourassa, and D. M. Legler, 1998: Impact of correcting marine wind observations on air-sea flux fields in the North Atlantic. CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling, World Meteorological Organization, ed. A. Staniforth, 2.7-2.8.
  • Goodrick S, and J. Brenner, 1999: Florida’s Fire management information system. Proceedings of The Joint Fire Science Conference and Workshop, June 15-17, Boise ID. Vol. 1: 3-12. pdf
  • Goodrick, S.L. 2000: Development of an objective spot forecasting tool using a mesoscale model. Proceedings of the Third Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorology Society, January 9-14, Long Beach, CA pp 59-60
  • Goodrick, S.L. 2001: Extension of the Fosberg fire weather index to the impact of precipitation and drought: Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorology Society, November 13-15, Reno, NV. pp 223-224.
  • Laing, A., C. Paxton, S. Goodrick, D. Sharp and P. Blottman, 2001: Florida wildfire initiation and environmental conditions during 1998, Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. American Meteorological Society Reno, NV. November 13-15, 2001. pdf
  • Paxton C., A. Laing, S. Goodrick and C. Maxwell, 2001: Wildfire Outbreak and Suppression: Cases from 1998 Florida Wildfires. Proceedings of 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Ft Lauderdale, FL, July 2001 pdf
  • Potter, B.E. and S. L. Goodrick, 2001: Performance of the Haines Index during August 2000 for Montana: Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorology Society, November 13-15, Reno, NV. pp 233-236
  • Goodrick, S.L. 2002: Extension of the Fosberg fire weather index to the impact of precipitation and drought: Int. J. of Wildland Fire, 11, 205-211.
  • Achtemeier, G., S. Goodrick and Y-Q Liu, 2003: The Southern High-Resolution Modeling Consortium – a source for research and operational collaboration. Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Cunningham, P., S. Goodrick, M.Y. Hussaini, R. Linn and C. Xia, 2003: Dynamics of fire plumes in vertical shear. Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Goodrick, S., 2003: Incorporation of Radar Precipitation Estimates in a Drought Index Applicable to Wildland Fire. Proceedings of the 2003 Georgia Water Resources Conference, Kathryn J. Hatcher, editor, Institute of Ecology, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia. April 23-24, 2003 pdf
  • Goodrick, S., 2003: Relationship between atmospheric stability and area burned during the 1998 Florida Wildfires. Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Hoadley, J., M. Rorig, P. Westrick, L. Bradshaw, S. Ferguson, S. Goodrick and P. Werth, 2003: Assessing the Value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger. Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Potter, B., S. Goodrick and T. Brown, 2003: Development of a statistical validation methodology for fire weather indices. Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Stone, C., S. Goodrick and D. Hanley, 2003: Exhausting relative greenness: Inaccurate fire potential index for Florida, Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Xia, C., M.Y. Hussaini, P. Cunningham, R. Linn and S. Goodrick, 2003: Numerical study of the effects of atmospheric temperature profile on wildfire behavior. Proceedings of the 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, November 2003 pdf
  • Hoadley, J., K. Westrick, S. Ferguson, S. Goodrick, L. Bradshaw and P. Werth. 2004: The Effect of Model Resolution in Predicting Meteorological Parameters Used in Fire Danger Rating. Journal of Applied Meteorology: Vol. 43, No. 10, pp. 1333–1347
  • Cunningham P., S. Goodrick, M.Y. Hussaini and R. Linn, 2005: Coherent vortical structures in numerical simulations of buoyant plumes from wildland fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14(1) 61–75
  • Achtemeier, G., S. Goodrick and Y-Q. Liu, 2005: A coupled modeling system for connecting prescribed fire activity data through CMAQ for simulating regional scale air quality. Proceedings of EastFire Conference, Fairfax, VA. May 2005. (available on conference CD)
  • Liu, Y-Q., G. Achtemeier and S. Goodrick, 2005: Simulation and experiment of air quality effects of prescribed fires in the southeast. Proceedings of EastFire Conference, Fairfax, VA. May 2005. (available on conference CD)
  • Cunningham P. and S. Goodrick, 2005: High-resolution numerical models for smoke transport in plumes from wildland fires. Proceedings of EastFire Conference, Fairfax, VA. May 2005. (available on conference CD)
  • Goodrick, S. and P. Cunningham, 2005: Numerical modeling of horizontal vortices forced by wildland fires. Proceedings of EastFire Conference, Fairfax, VA. May 2005. (available on conference CD)
  • Hanley, D., P. Cunningham and S. Goodrick, 2005: Interaction between a wildfire and a sea breeze front. Proceedings of EastFire Conference, Fairfax, VA. May 2005. (available on conference CD)
  • Brenner, J. and S. Goodrick, 2005: Florida’s Fire Management Information System. Proceedings of EastFire Conference, Fairfax, VA. May 2005. (available on conference CD)
  • Hanley, D., P. Cunningham and S. Goodrick, 2006: Interaction between a wildfire and a sea breeze front. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 87(3) 284-286.
  • Hoadley, J.L., Rorig, M.L., Bradshaw, L., Ferguson, S.A., Westrick, K.J., Goodrick, S.L. and Werth, P., 2006. Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of National Fire Danger Rating indexes. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15: 147–154
  • Goodrick, S., Achtemeier, G. and Liu, Y. 2006. Southern Smoke Simulation System - A framework for modeling smoke impacts from prescribed burning in the South. EPA 15th Annual Emission Inventory Conference, New Orleans, LA. pdf
  • Clements, C.B., S. Zhong, S. Goodrick, J. Li, B.E. Potter, X. Bian, W.E. Heilman, J.J. Charney, R. Perna, M. Jang, D. Lee, M. Patel, S. Street and G. Aumann. 2007. Fireflux - A field validation experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(9) 1369-1382.
  • Jackson WA, Achtemeier GL, Goodrick SL (2007). A Technical Evaluation of Smoke Dispersion from the Brush Creek Prescribed Fire and the Impacts on Asheville, North Carolina, http://199.128.173.141/smoke/March06/, 24 pp.
  • Stanturf, John A., Goodrick, Scott L., and Outcalt, Kenneth W. 2007. Disturbance and coastal forests: a strategic approach to forest management in hurricane impact zones. Forest Ecology and Management. 250: 119-135.
  • Hardy, C., Weise, D., Ottmar, R., Heilman, W., Goodrick, S., Sandberg, D., Hillbruner, M. 2008. Fire Behavior Science Advancement Plan. Joint Fire Science Program 08-S-01.
  • Jimenez, E., M.Y. Hussaini, and S.L. Goodrick, 2008. Quantifying parametric uncertainty in the Rothermel model. International Journal Wildland Fire, 17, 638-649.
  • Liu, Y.-Q. , G. Achtemeier and S. Goodrick, 2008, Sensitivity of air quality simulation to smoke plume rise. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing Vol. 2, 021503 (20 May 2008) DOI: 10.1117/1.2938723.
  • Snow J, Andreoli L, Barborinas J, Csiszar I, Cunningham P, Curran P, Fujioka F, Goodrick S, Linn R, Mell W, Pagni P, Saleen M. (2008) Fire Weather Research: A Burning Issue for NOAA. Report from the NOAA Science Advisory Board. October 2, 2008. 98 pp.
  • Goodrick, S.L. and D. Hanley, 2009. Revisiting the relationship between Florida wildfire activity and ENSO. Int. J. Wildland Fire. 18(4) 476-482
  • Liu Y, Goodrick S, Achtemeier G, Jackson W, Qu J and Wang W, 2009. Smoke incursions into an urban area: simulation of a Georgia prescribed burn. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18 (3) 336-348.
  • Liu, Y., Stanturf, J.A., Goodrick, S.L. 2009. Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 685-697.
  • Goodrick, S.L, Shea, D., J. Blake, 2010. Estimating fuel consumption for the upper coastal plain of South Carolina. Southern Journal Applied Forestry 34, 5-12.
  • Johnson Gaither, C., Poudyal, N.C., Goodrick, S., Bowker, J.M., Malone, S., Gan, J. 2010. Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach. Forest Policy and Economics, DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2010.07.009
  • Liu, L., Achtemeier, G.L., Goodrick, S.L., Jackson, W. 2010. Important parameters for smoke plume rise simulation with Daysmoke. Atmospheric Pollution Research 1, 250-259. doi: 10.5094/APR.2010.032.
  • Liu, Y., Stanturf, J., Goodrick, S. 2010. Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI. Ecological Informatics [available on-line; doi: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2010.04.001]
  • Goodrick, Scott L. and John A. Stanturf. 2010. Conceptual framework for improved wind-related forest threat assessment in the southeastern United States. In: Stanturf, John A., ed. 2010. Proceedings of the 14th biennial southern silvicultural research conference. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS–121. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station; p. 313-318.
  • Achtemeier, GA, Liu, Y, Goodrick, SL (2011). A Review of Conflicting Interests and a Technique for Incorporating the Land Manager into Regional Air Quality Modeling. In: Qu, Rebau, Yang, And Sommers (eds) Remote Sensing and Modeling Applications to Wildland Fires. Springer-Verlag, Tsinghua University Press. 109-126.
  • Cunningham P, Goodrick SL (2011). High-Resolution Numerical Models for Smoke Transport in Plumes from Wildland Fires. In: Qu, Riebau, Yang, And Sommers (eds) Remote Sensing and Modeling Applications to Wildland Fires. Springer-Verlag, Tsinghua University Press. 74-88.
  • Forthofer Jason M., Goodrick Scott L., (2011) "Review of Vortices in Wildland Fire," Journal of Combustion, vol. 2011, 1-14. doi:10.1155/2011/984363
  • Hanley, DE, Cunningham, P, Goodrick, SL (2011) Interaction between a Wildfire and the Sea-Breeze Front. In: Qu, Rebau, Yang, And Sommers (eds) Remote Sensing and Modeling Applications to Wildland Fires. Springer-Verlag, Tsinghua University Press. 89-108.
  • Achtemeier GL, Goodrick SL, Liu Y, Garcia-Menendez F, Hu Y, Odman MT (2011) Modeling Smoke Plume-Rise and Dispersion from Southern United States Prescribed Burns with Daysmoke. Atmosphere, 2(3): 358-388.
  • Poudyal, N.; Johnson-Gaither, C., Goodrick, S., Bowker, J.M., Gan, J. (2012). Locating Spatial Variation in the Association between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability across Six Southern States. Environmental Management, 49(3): 623-635.
  • Prestemon JP, Chas-Amil ML, Touza JM, Goodrick SL, (2012). Forecasting Intentional Wildfires Using Temporal and Spatio-Temporal Autocorrelations. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(1): 83-94.
  • Stanturf JA, Warren ML, Charnley S, Polasky SC, Goodrick SL, Armah F, Nyako YA (2011) Ghana climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Report to USAID. June 2011 [Report not released publicly at this time]
  • Achtemeier, G.L.; Goodrick, S.A.; Liu, Y. 2012. Modeling multiple-core updraft plume rise for an aerial ignition prescribed burn by coupling daysmoke with a cellular automata fire model. Atmosphere, 3(3): 352-376.
  • Goodrick, S.L.; Stanturf, J.A. 2012. Evaluating potential changes in fire risk from eucalyptus plantings in the southern United States. International Journal of Forestry Research, pgs. 1-9.
  • Poudyal, N.; Johnson-Gaither, C.; Goodrick, S.; Bowker, J.; Gan, J. 2012. Locating spatial variation in the association between wildland fire risk and social vulnerability across six southern states. Environmental Management, 49(3): 623-635.
  • Waldrop, Thomas A.; Goodrick, Scott L. (2012). Introduction to prescribed fires in Southern ecosystems. Science Update SRS-054. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 80 p.
  • Goodrick SL, Achtemeier GL, Larkin NK, Liu Y, Strand TM (2013) Modeling smoke transport from wildland fires: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(1): 83-94.
  • Stanturf JA, Goodrick SL (2013) Chapter 17: Fire. Wear DN, Greis JG (eds) In The Southern Forest Futures Project: Technical Report. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-178. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. Pgs. 509-542.
  • Liu, Y.; Goodrick, S.L.; Achtemeier, G.L.; Forbus, K.; Combs, D. 2013. Smoke plume height measurement of prescribed burns in the south-eastern United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(2): 130-147.
  • Liu, Y.; Goodrick, S.A.; Stanturf, J. Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario. Forest Ecology and Management, 294: 120-135.
  • Bedel, A.P.; Mote, T.L.; Goodrick, S.L. 2013. Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(8): 1034-1043.
  • Goodrick SL, Achtemeier GL, Larkin NK, Liu Y, Strand TM (2013) Modeling smoke transport from wildland fires: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(1): 83-94.
  • Stanturf JA, Goodrick SL (2013) Chapter 17: Fire. Wear DN, Greis JG (eds). In The Southern Forest Futures Project: Technical Report. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-178. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. Pgs. 509-542.
  • Liu, Y.; Goodrick, S.; Heilman, W. 2014. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: wildfire-climate interactions. Forest Ecology and Management. 317(1): 80-96.
  • Liu, Yonggiang; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Homes, Thomas P.; Stanturf, John A.; Vose, James M.; Sun, Ge. 2014. Future wildfire trends, impacts, and mitigation options in the southern United States. In: Vose, James M.; Klepzig, Kier D., eds. Climate change adaptation and mitigation management options: A guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. 85-126.

Center for Forest Disturbance Science (SRS RWU 4156)

University of Georgia
Forestry Sciences Laboratory
320 Green Street
Athens, GA 30602

Clemson University
233 Lehotsky Hall
Clemson, SC 29634