Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

  • Authors: Clark, James S.; Carpenter, Steven R.; Barber, Mary; Collins, Scott; Dobson, Andy; Foley, Jonathan A.; Lodge, David M.; Pascual, Mercedes; Pielke, Roger; Pizer, William; Pringle, Cathy; Reid, Walter V.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Sala, Osvaldo; Schlesinger, William H.; Wall, Diana H.; Wear, David
  • Publication Year: 2001
  • Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
  • Source: Science 293: 657-660

Abstract

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controis on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.

  • Citation: Clark, James S.; Carpenter, Steven R.; Barber, Mary; Collins, Scott; Dobson, Andy; Foley, Jonathan A.; Lodge, David M.; Pascual, Mercedes; Pielke, Roger, Jr.; Pizer, William; Pringle, Cathy; Reid, Walter V.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Sala, Osvaldo; Schlesinger, William H.; Wall, Diana H.; Wear, David 2001. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660
  • Posted Date: April 1, 1980
  • Modified Date: August 25, 2014
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