Timber markets and fuel treatments in the western US
We developed a model of interrelated timber markets in the U.S. West to assess the impacts of large-scale fuel reduction programs on these markets, and concomitant effects of the market on the fuel reduction programs. The linear programming spatial equilibrium model allows interstate and international trade with western Canada and the rest of the world, while accounting for price effects of introducing softwood logs to the market. The model maximizes area treated, given fire regime-condition class priorities, maximum increases in softwood processing capacity, maximum rates of annual treatments, prohibitions on exports of U.S. and Canadian softwood logs from public lands and a fixed annual treatment budget. Results show that the loss to U.S. private timber producers is less than the gains for timber consumers (mills). States receiving more treatments when spending is not constrained by state proportions include Idaho, Montana, New Mexico and Oregon. When only the wildland-urban interface is treated, California, Oregon and Washington receive more treatments. Utah and Colorado receive more treatments when low risk stands are included.