Predicting the past: a simple reverse stand table projection method

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  • Authors: Cao, Quang V.; McCarty, Shanna M.
  • Publication Year: 2006
  • Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)
  • Source: Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-92. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. pp. 301-304

Abstract

A stand table gives number of trees in each diameter class. Future stand tables can be predicted from current stand tables using a stand table projection method. In the simplest form of this method, a future stand table can be expressed as the product of a matrix of transitional proportions (based on diameter growth rates) and a vector of the current stand table. There are cases where the reverse information is needed, i.e. predicting the past instead of the future. Examples of these scenarios include estimating timber damages and retroactively establishing the tax basis of timber that was earlier inherited or purchased. This study focused on procedures used to predict past stand tables from current stand tables and past diameter growth rates. The reverse stand table projection method can be an effective approach to predict the past when not much information is available. Its main drawback is that it has low tolerance for poor estimates of past diameter growth rates, which can result in prediction of negative numbers of trees for some diameter classes.

  • Citation: Cao, Quang V.; McCarty, Shanna M. 2006. Predicting the past: a simple reverse stand table projection method. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-92. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. pp. 301-304
  • Posted Date: June 16, 2006
  • Modified Date: August 22, 2006
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