Uncertainty quantification in Rothermel's Model using an efficient sampling method

This article is part of a larger document. View the larger document here.

  • Authors: Jimenez, Edwin; Hussaini, M. Yousuff; Goodrick, Scott L.
  • Publication Year: 2007
  • Publication Series: Proceedings (P)
  • Source: In: Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, comps. The fire environment--innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March 2007; Destin, FL. Proceedings RMRS-P-46CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. CD-ROM. p. 111-121

Abstract

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in Rothermel’s wildland fire spread model (implemented in software such as BehavePlus3 and FARSITE), which is undoubtedly among the most widely used fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a nonlinear system of equations that relates environmental variables (input parameter groups) such as fuel type, fuel moisture, terrain, and wind to describe the fire environment. This model predicts important fire quantities (output parameters) such as the head rate of spread, spread direction, effective wind speed, and fireline intensity. The proposed method, which we call sensitivity derivative enhanced sampling (SDES), exploits sensitivity derivative information to accelerate the convergence of the classical Monte Carlo method. Coupled with traditional variance reduction procedures, it offers up to two orders of magnitude acceleration in convergence, which implies that two orders of magnitude fewer samples are required for a given level of accuracy. Thus, it provides an efficient method to quantify the impact of input uncertainties on the output parameters.

  • Citation: Jimenez, Edwin; Hussaini, M. Yousuff; Goodrick, Scott L. 2007. Uncertainty quantification in Rothermel''s Model using an efficient sampling method. In: Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, comps. The fire environment--innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March 2007; Destin, FL. Proceedings RMRS-P-46CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. CD-ROM. p. 111-121
  • Keywords: wildland fire management, Rothermel’s wildland fire spread model, sensitivity derivative enhanced sampling, SDES
  • Posted Date: September 18, 2007
  • Modified Date: April 1, 1980
  • Print Publications Are No Longer Available

    In an ongoing effort to be fiscally responsible, the Southern Research Station (SRS) will no longer produce and distribute hard copies of our publications. Many SRS publications are available at cost via the Government Printing Office (GPO). Electronic versions of publications may be downloaded, printed, and distributed.

    Publication Notes

    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
    • To view this article, download the latest version of Adobe Acrobat Reader.