Abstract
We developed decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data.
Keywords
Bayesian belief networks,
decision models,
expert panels,
risk analysis,
Northwest Forest Plan,
species conservation
Citation
Marcot, B.G.; Hohenlohe, P.A.; Morey, S.; Holmes, R.; Molina, R.; Turley, M.C.; Huff, M.H.; Laurence, J.A. 2006. Characterizing species at risk. II: Using Bayesian belief networks as decision support tools to determine species conservation categories under the Northwest Forest Plan. Ecology and Society. 11(2): 12. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art12/
