Potential impacts of climate change on neotropical migrants: management implications
This article is part of a larger document. View the larger document here.Abstract
The world is warming. Over the last 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.7°C. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a further increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.4° - 5.8° C by the year 2100. How will climate change affect Neotropical migrants? Models of changes in the breeding distributions of North American birds predict that most species will undergo some shift in their ranges. In parts of northern Minnesota and southern Ontario, this could lead to an avifauna with as many as 16 fewer species of wood warblers than currently occur. Unless all components of the ecosystem change at the same rate, an unlikely prospect, this potential disruption of the ecosystem could lead to major impacts on forest health. Data show that many changes have already occurred with earlier arrival dates, breeding dates and changes in distributions. This includes preliminary results showing the average latitude of occurrence of some species of North American birds has shifted northward by almost 100 km in the last 20 years, and many species in Michigan arriving in the spring an average of 21 days earlier now than 30 years ago. Climate change will add more pressure to bird populations and greater challenges to conservation planners and land managers.