Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

  • Authors: Zarnoch, Stanley J.; Cordell, H. Ken; Betz, Carter J.
  • Publication Year: 2010
  • Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)
  • Source: e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS–128. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 8 p.

Abstract

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations Environment Programme. The first of these scenarios, the A1/Census scenario, is equivalent to the current official U.S. Bureau of Census national projection, which, at the writing of this paper, extended to 2050. The second scenario, A2, is a higher population growth future, and the B2 scenario is a lower population growth future. The methodology for developing projections to 2060 is to disaggregate the above-mentioned national growth scenarios by using county shares of national population growth obtained from the Woods & Poole Economics Inc. projections of county populations from 2010 to 2030. A1/Census county projections from 2035 to 2060 are based on a recursive approach that extends past growth to project future growth, with adjustments to assure national additivity across counties and growth-dampening for the highest growth counties. The A2 and B2 county populations for 2010 to 2060 are derived from the A1/Census county projection shares.
Dataset cited on page 7 available here.

  • Citation: Zarnoch, Stanley J.; Cordell, H. Ken; Betz, Carter J.; Langner, Linda 2010. Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS–128. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 8 p.
  • Keywords: Climate change scenarios, county population projections, growth extrapolation, population trends, Resources Planning Act, U.S. population projections
  • Posted Date: August 13, 2010
  • Modified Date: November 18, 2010
  • Print Publications Are No Longer Available

    In an ongoing effort to be fiscally responsible, the Southern Research Station (SRS) will no longer produce and distribute hard copies of our publications. Many SRS publications are available at cost via the Government Printing Office (GPO). Electronic versions of publications may be downloaded, printed, and distributed.

    Publication Notes

    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
    • Our online publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact the SRS webmaster if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • To view this article, download the latest version of Adobe Acrobat Reader.