Using TPO data to estimate timber demand in support of planning on the Tongass National Forest
This article is part of a larger document. View the larger document here.Abstract
Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for logs, lumber, residues, and niche products, and timber harvest by owner are developed by using a trend-based analysis. This is the fifth such analysis performed since 1990 to assist planners in meeting statutory requirements for estimating planning cycle demand for timber from the Tongass National Forest. Results reflect the consequences of recent changes in the Alaska forest sector and trends in markets for Alaska products. Demand for Alaska national forest timber currently depends on markets for sawn wood and exports of softwood logs. Three scenarios are presented that display a range of possible future market conditions. The model was most sensitive to changes in Pacific Rim log demand. Areas of uncertainty include the prospect of continuing changes in markets and competition, the impact of the young growth transition, and the rates of investment in manufacturing in Alaska.