Projected Market Competition for Wood Biomass between Traditional Products and Energy: A Simulated Interaction of US Regional, National, and Global Forest Product Markets
Using a partial market equilibrium framework, this study evaluated the US regional timber and wood products market impacts of a projected national level expansion in wood biomass consumption for energy. By restricting logging residue use, we focus on the impacts on timber harvests and paper production from increased pulpwood consumption and focus on the impacts on lumber production from increased mill residue consumption. Analyses showed that increased consumption of wood for energy led to diversion of about 37 million m3 of pulpwood away from pulpwood-using traditional products (e.g., panels and paper), reducing production and net exports of paper and paperboard by up to 3 million tonnes. Increased wood energy consumption also led to increased timber harvests (up to 40 million m3 or 8 percent), increased prices (up to 31 percent), and increased lumber production and net exports by up to 9 million m3. The South was projected to supply the majority of the energy feedstock (47 m3 or 77 percent) and toexperience the resultant effects on forests and wood products sectors. The findings highlight the importance of market linkages at local, national, and global levels in evaluating the impacts of increased wood energy consumption and the importance of identifying feedstock sources.