A Bayesian model identifying locations at risk from human‐transported exotic pathogens

  • Authors: McKelvey, Steven C.; Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Hawley, Kelly R.
  • Publication Year: 2021
  • Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
  • Source: Natural Resource Modeling
  • DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12307

Abstract

A two‐phase Bayesian model is presented for updating risk assessments for locations susceptible to infection by exotic pathogens. Human transportation from previously infected regions to uninfected regions is the main dispersal mechanism. Information embedded in patterns within the transportation flow are exploited in the update process. We explore the sensitivity of the model's outputs to changes in inputs. A sample application of the model to sudden oak death, using fictitious infection data, is performed.

  • Citation: McKelvey, Steven C.; Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Hawley, Kelly R. 2021. A Bayesian model identifying locations at risk from human‐transported exotic pathogens. Natural Resource Modeling. 108(10): 1166-. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12307.
  • Keywords: Bayesian analysis, human mediated pathways, infection detection and prevention, pathogen dispersal, Phytophthora ramorum, probabilistic network m
  • Posted Date: September 16, 2021
  • Modified Date: November 17, 2021
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