North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

  • Authors: Sharma, Shubhi; Andrus, Robert; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C.; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L.; Courbaud, Benoit; Das, Adrian J.; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Gilbert, Gregory S.; Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kilner, Christopher L.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Koenig, Walter D.; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M.; Macias, Diana; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A.; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian S.; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Redmond, Miranda D.; Reid, Chantal D.; Rodman, Kyle C.; Scher, C. Lane; Schlesinger, William H.; Steele, Michael A.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas T.; Whipple, Amy V; Whitham, Thomas G.; Wion, Andreas P.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zlotin, Roman; Clark, James S.
  • Publication Year: 2022
  • Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
  • Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2116691118

Abstract

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

  • Citation: Sharma, Shubhi; Andrus, Robert; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C.; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L.; Courbaud, Benoit; Das, Adrian J.; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Gilbert, Gregory S.; Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kilner, Christopher L.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Koenig, Walter D.; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M.; Macias, Diana; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A.; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian S.; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Redmond, Miranda D.; Reid, Chantal D.; Rodman, Kyle C.; Scher, C. Lane; Schlesinger, William H.; Steele, Michael A.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas T.; Whipple, Amy V.; Whitham, Thomas G.; Wion, Andreas P.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zlotin, Roman; Clark, James S. 2022. North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 119(3): e2116691118-. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116691118.
  • Keywords: climate change, forest regeneration, seed production, tree migration
  • Posted Date: January 6, 2022
  • Modified Date: January 6, 2022
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